The Packers are coming off a stunning home loss to the Carolina Panthers but are in first place in a tightly packed NFC North.
The defending champion Eagles have won two straight and are in control of the NFC East at the moment.
Entering this week, the Eagles had been favored in 13 straight games and the Packers in 12 straight. Those are the two longest active streaks in the NFL (regular season). The Eagles were 3-0 ATS as underdogs last season. They are slight underdogs Monday at Lambeau.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet on the game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Packers team total OVER 23.5 (-105)
Maldonado: Green Bay has become one of the league’s most efficient offenses, ranking top five in yards per play and third in third-down success rate. Jordan Love’s rhythm in clean pockets — 85.5% completions and 9.9 yards per attempt — sets up consistent scoring drives against an Eagles defense ranked 27th in plays allowed and 31st in opponent third-down conversions. Even though Tucker Kraft is out, the Packers’ balance and red zone efficiency are elite, the team converting 72% of red zone trips into touchdowns. With home-field tempo control and matchup leverage against Philadelphia’s secondary, taking Green Bay to rack up scores has legs.
Notable player props, bets
A.J. Brown to go OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
Loza: I’m driving down Narrative Street here. Howie Roseman said Brown was too valuable to trade at the close of the NFL trade deadline this past week. I think the team will demonstrate its commitment to him in Week 10. Not only do I expect Brown to be peppered (especially in what’s projected to be a close game, with a spread of 1.5 points), but I think he can take advantage of Green Bay’s secondary. The Packers have been good at limiting boundary receivers after the catch (despite giving up the seventh-most grabs to opposing wideouts), but Brown has the talent to beat average coverage. I expect him to flirt with upwards of 60 receiving yards Monday night.
DeVonta Smith to go OVER 4.5 receptions (-115)
Bowen: Smith has had six or more receptions in three of his past four games played. Here, the Eagles can scheme windows for Smith on in-breaking concepts versus the Packers’ zone-heavy defense, plus he will have matchups out of the slot. Let’s take the over.
Jalen Carter to go UNDER 0.5 sacks (-220)
Walder: One of the most fundamental tenets of sack forecasting is that in addition to the pass rusher, the opposing quarterback also plays a huge role in how likely a sack is to occur. That’s the basis for the under here. Jordan Love is taking a sack on just 4% of dropbacks, fourth best among quarterbacks this season. On top of that, this is a rare week where the Eagles are not expected to have a game script advantage as 1.5-point underdogs at Green Bay. That, combined with the Packers’ run-leaning tendencies, could limit Carter’s pass rush. And second-year guard Jordan Morgan, whom Carter will mostly be facing, has been solid in pass protection with a 94% pass block win rate that ranks 20th at the position. I price this under at -309.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Eagles are 15-4 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Nick Sirianni, including 11-1 since 2022.
The Eagles are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season.
The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their past six games.
Over the past 20 seasons, teams coming off an upset as a double-digit favorite are 47-29-1 ATS. Last week, the Packers lost as 13.5-point favorites against the Panthers, the first double-digit upset this season.
