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Mountain West Championship Game scenarios hinge on UNLV, computer rankings

November 29, 2025

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SAN DIEGO — One result on Friday could’ve made the 2025 Mountain West Championship Game scenario relatively straightforward, but when the San Diego State Aztecs lost in double-overtime at the New Mexico Lobos, it opened the door for chaos and calculations.

The Aztecs (9-3, 6-2), Lobos (9-3, 6-2) and Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-2) — who rallied to win at Utah State 25-24 — will all be ranked based on a composite of selected predictive and results-based computer metrics. Since no Mountain West team was ranked in the Nov. 25 College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings, information from Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI, and SportSource will determine the title game competitors.

Depending on whether UNLV can keep the Fremont Cannon for the fourth straight season, they can also earn a spot for consideration. The Rebels (9-2, 5-2) take on the Nevada Wolf Pack (3-8, 2-5) at Mackay Stadium at 6 p.m. and with a win will be figured into the metric rankings. Since all four of the teams did not play each other, the composite averages will be announced on Sunday morning with the head-to-head result determining home field.

RJ Forbus – The Sporting Tribune

UNLV Rebels HC Dan Mullen seen prior to a college football game against the Air Force Falcons on Saturday October 11, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Here’s how the four potential 6-2 in conference teams finished against each other:

San Diego State (1-1)

UNLV (0-2)

Boise State (2-1)

Oct. 11: Beat New Mexico 41-25 at home
OCt. 18: Beat UNLV 56-31 at home
Nov. 15: Lost at San Diego State 17-7

New Mexico (2-1)

Oct. 11: Lost at Boise State 41-25
Nov. 1: Won at UNLV 40-35
Nov. 28: Beat San Diego State 23-17 (2OT) at home

Boise State has beaten UNLV in each of the last two Mountain West Championship Games, winning 21-7 at home in 2024 and taking a 44-20 win at UNLV in 2023. San Diego State last hosted the title game, losing to Utah State 46-13 in Carson, Calif. In 2021. New Mexico has never competed in the championship game.

The Broncos have the most overall championships (five) and title game appearances (eight), and have been in seven of the last eight. San Diego State won back-to-back championship games in 2015 and 2016 in their only other title game appearances. UNLV is looking for their first Mountain West championship, with the past two seasons being their only title game appearances.

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