DiStefano’s prediction: Knies lights up the Lightning once more.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Matthew Knies (23) skates during the warmup.
Matthew Knies has been a thorn in the Lightning’s side, which is why he’s the subject of our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks for Wednesday, February 25.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction
Maple Leafs vs Lightning best bet: Matthew Knies anytime goal (+300)
The rate at which Matthew Knies scores against the Tampa Bay Lightning in his career doesn’t match up with the +300 price.
Let’s take advantage of that inefficiency.
Knies has scored 10 goals in 10 career games against the Lightning, including at least one goal in six of his last nine, which includes a hat-trick performance on April 9 of last season.
He’s also scored four goals in the five meetings against Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has struggled against the Leafs recently.
The perennial Vezina candidate has a 3.62 GAA and an .874 SV% over his last 10 meetings against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning same-game parlay
This matchup typically yields high-scoring games, which is why I’ll add Over 5.5 to my SGP. The total has gone Over the number in five of the last six meetings. Plus, with three weeks off, it could get sloppy, which often leads to higher-scoring games.
Auston Matthews returns to the Leafs a winner. I believe he’ll parlay his Olympic success into a shooting bonanza tonight and go Over his 3.5 shot total. He averages 5.4 shots per game in his last 10 meetings against Tampa.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning SGP
- Knies to score
- Matthews Over 3.5 shots
- Over 6
Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs +185 | Lightning -225
- Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-135) | Lightning -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Maple Leafs vs Lightning trend
The Maple Leafs are 8-2 on the moneyline in the last ten meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Lightning
| Location | Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Wednesday, February 25, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, HBO Max |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning latest injuries
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