The Rays are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are -104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
- Rays vs Twins Pick: Rays ML (-104 | Play to -115)
My Rays vs Twins best bet is on Tampa Bay to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Friday, Apr 3
4:10 p.m. ET
RAYS
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -104 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -112 |
- Rays vs Twins spread: Rays -1.5 (+164), Twins +1.5 (-200)
- Rays vs Twins over/under: 7.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Rays vs Twins moneyline: Rays -104, Twins -112
Rays vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Joe Boyle (TB) | Stat | RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.00 / 3.33 | ERA / xERA | 6.75 / 5.93 |
| 1.82 / 3.53 | FIP / xFIP | 6.65 / 5.24 |
| 0.50 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 19.0 | K-BB% | 0.0 |
| 47.1 | GB% | 46.7 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 101 | Location+ | 92 |
Rays vs Twins Preview
While I don’t directly quantify travel and rest in my model, I do note advantageous spots, and the Rays are set up well for Friday.
Tampa Bay had Thursday off to rest some key arms, including Griffin Jax (three appearances since last Sunday), while Minnesota had to play an afternoon game in Kansas City before traveling back north for their home opener on Friday afternoon (not even Friday night).
Regardless of the spot, I still like the Rays as the side in this matchup, projecting them as roughly 55% favorites despite opening at plus money.
I project Joe Boyle (projected FIP range of 3.89 to 4.49) as a better pitcher than Twins starter Bailey Ober (projected FIP range of 4.24 to 4.82) and suspect the former is breaking out while the latter may be masking an injury.
Boyle (career 13.7% walk rate) has always struggled with his command, but had glowing reports this spring, and he produced just his second-career walk-free appearance in his first start against the Cardinals (6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K).
He also overhauled his pitch mix in that outing — reducing his four-seam fastball by more than 20%, while mixing in a sinker (13%), keeping the splitter (16%) the Rays added last season, and pounding his slider (45%) more than he ever has (36% career).
If Boyle suddenly found his command this spring, widening his arsenal at the same time gives him immediate ace potential.
Conversely, Ober averaged below 90 mph with his fastball in his first start, closer to his level last season (90.2) than to his solid 2023 and 2024 campaigns (91.3 and 91.7 mph, respectively).
Ober may be still ramping up, but he was much worse last season (4.34 xERA, 4.75 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%) than he was in 2024 (3.25 / 3.83 / 20.9%) or 2023 (3.58 / 4.20 / 20.3%).
If the velocity continues to sit another half tick below where it was last season, he’s going to continue to struggle (4 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 1 K vs. Baltimore).
Tampa Bay also has the better bullpen and is the superior defensive club.
Minnesota has the better offense on paper against right-handed pitching by about nine points in terms of wRC+.
Still, the Rays are in their best split against a righty, and the offensive gap isn’t enough to overcome the differential in pitching quality.
The Rays project as my most significant edge on Friday’s slate. And if you factored in travel and rest, their fair odds would be even closer to -130 than my current projection indicates.
Pick: Rays ML (-104, FanDuel | Play to -115)
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