I really wanted to be writing this preview coming off a sweep of the Reds, but I suppose I’ll have to settle with a series win and going 6-4 on them in the season overall. They at least appear to be the better team – by differential, they have the Cardinals beat by over 60 runs. And yet it has not felt like that when the two teams have matched up. Sometimes, that’s just the way a baseball season will roll.
The Oakland Athletics are a team I honestly thought was doing better than they are. They invested in their team – due to avoiding a lawsuit with the MLBPA – and have a few breakout players that I know about. And yet they sit in last place in the AL West and they appear from the outside to be a legitimately bad baseball team. It makes sense, I just had this misperception they were having a surprising season.
The offense is not bad. It would probably be accurate to say that the offense may have adding to my misconception that the A’s were a mediocre to good team. Freshly signed to a long-term deal, Brent Rooker is having a good year, though not comparable to last season. Perhaps Rooker can tell us something about what a trade market looks for a DH-only player, which is to say probably nowhere near as good as you’d think. Why am I saying this? Because Rooker is a guy you trade, not sign to a long-term deal. But if nobody is really offering anything substantial and you need to spend the money anyway, that’s where the long-term deal makes sense to me.
The team wRC+ is 104, which ranks 11th in baseball. Besides Rooker, it is driven by two breakout players who I learned about because 1) one made the All-Star team and 2) one has been so good, he’s entered national news at points. That would be Jacob Wilson, son of former MLBer Jack Wilson, who is a player out of time. He never strikes out, doesn’t walk a lot, and doesn’t have a ton of power either. He does have enough power with his contact skills to give him a 119 wRC+. Nick Kurtz has a ton of power, with a .323 ISO and 27 homers in 392 PAs. I’m going to guess Kurtz won’t have a .394 BABIP for his career, so he’s probably not 178 wRC+ good.
They’re not all though. Take not Cards fans: it is possible for two catching prospects to hit. And one of them has moved off catcher. Tyler Soderstrom has moved to LF with the occasional game at 1B thrown in, and he has a 122 wRC+ on the year. He’s been above average in LF too, though really bad at 1B which is slightly odd. And the actual catcher, Shea Langaliers, who has a 125 wRC+ and 29 homers.
That’s five players I would want as the Cardinals’ five best hitters. After that though, it’s not great. Lawrence Butler seemed to break out last year, but the 23-year-old has fallen victims to too many strikeouts and not enough power. He only has a 94 wRC+. The 95th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Colby Thomas, has only played in 31 games, and he’s had an extreme strikeout proble with a 38.8 K%. After disappointing 2024, Zack Gelof has spent most of the year in the minors, but he’s been called back up. He’s only had 50 PAs, but he’s strike out in 26 of them. Yes, over half the time. And the last regular start, Darrell Hernaiz, has also spent most of the year in the minors and has just an 80 wRC+ so far.
They’re missing their best defender, Denzel Clarke. He can’t hit a lick, but he has a +12 OAA in just 383 innings. He will win a Gold Glove one day if he plays enough. Hernaiz is also making up for his bat with excellent play at SS so far, being worth +4 OAA in 189 innings at SS. With Wilson healthy, he’s not playing 3B. Butler has also been a good defender in RF this season. You’re noticing I’m not saying any of the good hitters here.
Yeah maybe this is part of why their record isn’t better. For the most part, their best hitters give away a lot of their value on defense. Rooker is playing every game at DH, because we already know he can’t really field. Kurtz has been a bad defender at first. Wilson hasn’t been a very good defender at SS. Langaliers appears to be a pretty bad defensive catcher. As mentioned above, Soderstrom has been promising out in LF, and with Kurtz here, he probably won’t play 1B much.
Overall, the Athletics are 24th in baseball in OAA as a team and keep in mind that’s with Clarke, who is not currently playing. There’s a sample size issue because most of these guys have barely played in the majors, so maybe this defense isn’t as bad as the numbers say, but the numbers are saying the Cardinals might get a few extra hits with this defense.
At least by the numbers, the A’s do not have a good bullpen. As a team, they have a 4.78 ERA and 4.34 FIP. And I’ll point out those numbers include the play of Mason Miller, who was traded at the deadline to the Padres. So it’s going tough for me to parse out who the actual closer of this bullpen is. They haven’t even had a save opportunity in the last week.
It might go to Sean Newcomb, who is probably their best reliever. Newcomb started the year in the rotation… in Boston. It looks like all the As had to do to get him was purchase his contract off the Red Sox. Well he has a 2.05 ERA and 0.9 fWAR in 31 games for the As. He’s a lefty if you didn’t know. Two saves since the deadline have gone to another lefty as well, Hogan Harris. Harris seems like your typical reliever, not really someone you want closing games so I find that interesting.
This is your classic cheap bullpen building group. Elvis Alvarado was claimed off waivers from the Pirates in the offseason and he’s been okay. Justin Sterner was claimed off waivers from the Rays last November. Sterner has had okay results, although he doesn’t look good with a 1.53 HR/9. So he’s prone to the homer. Michael Kelly was claimed off waivers back in 2023. The recently called up Brady Basso was a 16th round pick. The 31-year-old Tyler Ferguson was a minor league deal before the 2024 season, although he has not been good this year.
Oddly, the biggest investment appears to be Eduarniel Nunez, who was part of the Mason Miller/JP Sears trade. The results have not been promising. He struck out 42% of batters in AAA but that has not remotely translated to the majors. Already 26, he has many strikeouts as walks, and he’s walked 15% of batters. He also had a huge walk problem in the minors, so the strikeouts are going to have to come. That said, given those minor league numbers, would not surprise me if he just dominated the Cards this series.
Luis Morales (1.19 ERA/3.08 FIP/4.19 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (4.19 ERA/3.23 FIP/3.03 xFIP)
If those numbers look weird, that’s because Morales has pitched in 5 MLB games. The 22-year-old appears to be mostly a two-pitch pitcher, with those pitches being fastball and slider. He throws a change 12% of the time, but the scouting suggests it has some work to get to MLB quality. The fastball and slider however rate as 60 and 55 by Fangraphs.
Forgive me for being excited that Gray is starting, because I am sure I will eat my words. But in about six hours, I’ll be in my seat watching Gray pitch and hopefully it’s a good one. The weather looks good, he’s at home, I’m hoping for the best.
Luis Severino (4.82 ERA/4.10 FIP/4.62 xFIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (5.04 ERA/5.00 FIP/4.83 xFIP)
Good news here: we got a Mikolas start at home. At home this year, he has a 3.57 ERA and hitters bat to the tune of a .278 wOBA against Mikolas. The underlying metrics aren’t really that much better at home, so while I’m sure he is better at home than on the road, he’s probably still not good. Hitters have a .245 BABIP when he’s at home and there’s no way that’s for real.
Severino is getting activated off the injured list, which for an opposing team, can be a good thing or a bad thing. Sometimes newly activated pitcher comes back rusty, and hitters can have a field day. Or something was nagging at them that they are now free off, and they’re a better pitcher than what the season stats say. We’ll find out if the Cardinals hit today.
Jeffrey Springs (4.17 ERA/4.76 FIP/4.62 xFIP) vs. Matthew Liberatore (4.32 ERA/4.02 FIP/4.30 xFIP)
I wonder if the Cardinals see it this way, but I just want Liberatore to survive to the end of the season while still looking like a competent pitcher. The results haven’t really been there, but they haven’t been awful either. He’s been just good enough to keep pitching, but just bad enough to be concerned about him.
Springs was one of the ways the As added payroll, picking up his contract from the Rays when Springs didn’t return from Tommy John as the same pitcher as he was before. And that still appears true, though Springs unfortunately is a lefty so I’m not sure I’m optimistic about the Cardinals hitting him
Three fairly winnable games, so just about no result would surprise me. I will also note Kurtz missed the last two games to an oblique injury so I wonder if we’ll see him today.
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