Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season by the end of this week, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is now strengthening as it moves westward. The NHC said there is still uncertainty about what impact it could have on the U.S. East Coast, the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas, but added that there’s an increasing risk of dangerous surf and rip currents next week across the western Atlantic basin.
Where is Tropical Storm Erin, and what is its path?
As of 5 p.m. ET Wednesday:
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Erin was located 1,200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
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The storm has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
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It is moving west at 17 mph.
“This general motion is expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend,” the NHC said. “On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.”
What are the chances it will intensify?
The NHC’s intensity forecast shows Tropical Storm Erin could become a hurricane “in a day or two,” according to the agency’s Wednesday evening public advisory. “Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane by Friday,” forecasters said.
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on a scale ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, according to the NHC.
Watches and warnings in place
As of 5 p.m. ET Wednesday, there were no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
“Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend,” the NHC said. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office.”
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13-18 (estimated at 13-19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We’re currently about halfway through this year’s hurricane season, and there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter and Erin.
