How Blue Jays can clinch post-season berth, AL East, first-round bye

Riding a six-game win streak, the Toronto Blue Jays continue to close in on not only a return to the post-season, but also an AL East title and first-round bye.

Sitting at 89-62 after Tuesday’s win over the Tampa Bay Rays, the Blue Jays hold a five-game lead over the New York Yankees in the division, and they could be just days away from clinching their spot in October.

With many possible outcomes to be decided over the final weeks of the regular season, here is a look at Toronto’s path to claiming its spot in the 2025 playoff picture.

Baseball’s “magic number” refers to how close a team is to clinching its playoff spot and represents the combined number of wins it needs and losses its closest rival needs to clinch.

Blue Jays’ games remaining +1 – (Losses by chasing team – Blue Jays’ losses)

The formula doesn’t account for any tiebreakers, which come down to head-to-head record. Thanks to their dominant play against fellow contenders, the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker over each team remaining in the AL playoff race except for the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians.

Make sure to follow along here on Sportsnet.ca through the end of September as we update each of Toronto’s clinching scenarios, using the magic number.

Post-season berth magic number: 3

As things stand, the Blue Jays’ magic number for simply clinching a spot in the American League playoff bracket depends on the non-playoff team closest to a wild-card spot — the Guardians.

Cleveland opened its series against the Detroit Tigers with an extra-innings win on Tuesday, making Toronto’s magic number three.

This means that any combination of three Toronto wins and Guardians losses would result in the Blue Jays clinching a playoff berth.

AL East title magic number: 6

Even though the Yankees (84-67) held on to beat the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday, since the Blue Jays won, Toronto took a step closer to its first division crown since 2015.

The Blue Jays’ magic number to clinch the AL East is down to six. That figure accounts for the tiebreaker they hold over New York, having won the season series 8–5.

As of Tuesday night, FanGraphs projected Toronto with a 98.3 per cent chance to win the division, compared with 1.6 per cent for the Yankees.

Once again, the Blue Jays would win the AL East if they win and the Yankees lose six total combined games.

First-round bye magic number: 5*
*AL East must also be clinched

With the Tigers (85-66) currently ahead of the Mariners (83-68) by two games, it’s Seattle that decides Toronto’s magic number for a bye past the wild-card series and through to the ALDS.

Thanks to Toronto’s 4-2 season series edge over the Mariners, their bye-clinching number sits at five

Since the bye magic number is smaller than the one to clinch the AL East, the Blue Jays must still secure the division first — meaning the East race ultimately determines when they can actually lock down the bye.

The struggling Astros (83-69) could also factor into the picture eventually, as they sit just half a game behind Seattle in the AL West.

If Houston retakes the division lead, it would become Toronto’s closest challenger for the second bye. The Astros hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Blue Jays, and Toronto’s magic number against them also sits at five.

As far as clinching home-field advantage through the AL side of the playoffs goes, Toronto’s magic number vs. Detroit stands at seven with the tiebreaker.

Current relevant American League series

Toronto @ Tampa Bay (Tuesday: 6-5, Blue Jays)
N.Y. Yankees @ Minnesota (Tuesday: 10-9, Yankees)
Boston vs. Athletics (Tuesday: 2-1, Athletics)
Cleveland @ Detroit (Tuesday: 7-5, Guardians)
Seattle @ Kansas City (Tuesday: 12-5, Mariners)
Texas @ Houston (Tuesday: 6-5, Astros)