Hurricane Lorena Could Bring Southwest US Flood Threat

Lorena May Bring Flooding To Southwest

Hurricane Lorena won’t make a landfall in the U.S., but parts of the Southwest could still see impacts into this weekend.

Soaking rain from the storm’s remnants could trigger flooding across portions of Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.

Where is Hurricane Lorena Now?

Hurricane Lorena is less than 200 miles off the western coast of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. It became the 12th storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season late Tuesday morning.

Lorena strengthened to a hurricane early Wednesday morning.

Outer rainbands have already soaked areas around Los Cabos in the southern Baja Peninsula with 2 to 8 inches of rain since Tuesday, even as the core of the storm remains well offshore.

Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for the southern half of the Pacific side of the Baja Peninsula. This means tropical storm conditions are either possible (watches) or expected (warnings) in those areas.

An Uncertain Forecast

Lorena is expected to begin weakening on Thursday. But its forecast after that remains a challenge.

That’s because how fast Lorena weakens will affect where it goes.

If Lorena weakens fast, as some models indicate, it could fizzle before its center ever reaches land in the Baja Peninsula.

If, however, Lorena weakens slower, it could still move into the Baja Peninsula as a tropical storm Friday, then into northwest Mexico as a depression or storm before dissipating.

The cone graphic below shows the latest National Hurricane Center’s forecast.

Flooding rain, high surf, some coastal flooding and wind gusts can be expected across most of the Baja Peninsula over the next few days, regardless.

While the storm should begin to dissipate over northern Mexico, the storm’s remnants could impact parts of the U.S.

Lorena’s Potential US Impacts

Forecast models are showing an uptick in moisture across southern Arizona, New Mexico and Texas steadily as this week goes on, especially Friday into the weekend as Lorena’s remnant moisture and upper-level spin arrives. This means heavy rainfall could impact certain areas and even lead to flash flooding.

In fact, flood watches have already been issued for southern Arizona for this weekend, which could be expanded as the storm approaches. More than an inch of rain is possible in the higher elevations of southern Arizona.

Make sure you check back often for updates, as the forecast could change.

Desert Southwest Could Use Rain

Much of southern Arizona and New Mexico is experiencing drought conditions. Part of this is because monsoonal rains are also behind schedule for many locations in the Desert Southwest.

The entire state of Arizona is currently in drought conditions, while 70% of New Mexico is suffering from drought.

While the uptick in tropical moisture could bring flash flooding conditions, possibly serious in some areas, the Southwest could use a boost in rain from Lorena.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.