Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur: Prediction for the Match on October 06, 2025
The Rolex Shanghai Masters, an outdoor hard-court ATP 1000 event at the Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, is set to be a thriller in its Round of 32 where World No. 65 Kamil Majchrzak will meet No. 7 Alex de Minaur on October 5, 2025. Riding on the crest of his career wave after toppling seeded players at majors and won his Challengers, Majchrzak comes with an excellent 35-18 season record and will be particularly feared on the hard courts.
De Minaur, who just left Beijing in the semifinals and celebrated his 10th ATP title in Washington, counts himself 47-18 with 27-10 on hard and is looking forward to the Asia tour rest with great anticipation. In the past, De Minaur has been struggling to level up in Shanghai and it will be his first time in the latter stages of the tournament. On the other hand, Majchrzak, making a debut at the US Open after the third round, is playing pretty well here in Shanghai.
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🇵🇱 Kamil Majchrzak
Kamil Majchrzak, ranked No. 65, is coming to the Shanghai Masters 2025 with a great season record of 35-18, including 18-5 on hard courts, according to ATP stats. The 29-year-old Pole just had the first round victory over Ethan Quinn, 6-3, 6-4, his debut at this event after a third-round US Open run where he upset No. 9 Karen Khachanov in a five-set thriller. His hard-court surge includes semifinals at clay events transitioning to Asia, showcasing improved endurance post-injury.
Majchrzak focuses on consistency from the baseline, and on hard he won 79% of his service games, with a 23.5% return game advantage, and he was very efficient in recent wins when turning the breaks into game. He plays a low number of double faults and his first serve is quite powerful (approximately 75%), so it is no surprise that there are comparisons between his 2025 Challenger successes like the one in Madrid and his current form. After the match against Quinn, X fans spoke about “gutsy comeback” and one of the posts said that his mental toughness reminded him of the time he upset Berrettini at Wimbledon.
The media are talking a lot about his return to the top 100 after the ban, which is extremely encouraging, and this has been helped a lot by the fact that his wife, Marta, who is also his coach, is with him all the time. If we look at de Minaur, Majchrzak with his good serving can definitely make the opponent get mistakes, but due to his lack of experience against a top-10 player who is so quick and that the Shanghai court is fast, his rallies may be very short – he has an average of 4 shots per point. Even though de Minaur has a very strong game when it comes to return and he is among the top-10 players who win the most return points, Majchrzak can use tactics to get more time on the court, work on his stamina and use it to his advantage to grind down the Australian if he plays in a longer match.
🇦🇺 Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur, who is ranked No. 7, is going to the Shanghai Masters 2025 with a 47-18 season record, where he has been very successful on hard courts with a 27-10 record, according to ATP data. The Australian, who is seeded seventh with a first-round bye, was actually in the Beijing semifinal last time, where he was defeated by Jannik Sinner, thus, he can be seen as getting stronger since his third ATP 500 title in Washington. His Asian swing is for the moment without the loss of the round 16, so extending the year in a quite positive way with 10 titles in total could be the point of the next days of the season for him.
The game of de Minaur is great when it is played at his fastest and this is the way he did it in this season as he has been top in 2.86 aces per match and 69.6% of total wins, so he has been very efficient in his serve and very active in breaking the opponent’s serve as well (2.49 per match). His backhand obscene and his chasing all over the court, even though it is hard, remind the US Open quarters. After the Washington tournament, he went up to the No. 8 spot, and X users were calling him “unstoppable on pace.” Some interviews with him show that he is currently in a very good shape: “Although I was not able to do much in Beijing, there are so many things that I did right and that is what I take from Beijing.”
De Minaur will be looking to break Majchrzak’s second serve in this match and therefore he will be able to do this better if he gets shorter rallies and thus is able to use his speed. Hard courts usually are a good place for his aggressiveness while Majchrzak is a player who is very consistent thus it is quite possible that we would be seeing tiebreaks. What most fans are saying on X is that it will be a straight-sets victory, but the experience of de Minaur in Masters events makes him the one who actually controls the tempo and thus it is more difficult for him to make errors.
Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Head-to-Head Statistics
Alex de Minaur is leading Kamil Majchrzak 1-0, after a straight-sets 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 victory in their 2022 Australian Open second round encounter on hard. De Minaur’s 11 aces and 84.6% first-serve points won were too much for Majchrzak who was well under two hours with no breaks conceded towards the end of the match. According to ATP stats, hard courts bring out de Minaur’s speed, while Majchrzak’s determination was evident but he cracked under pressure. I believe de Minaur’s returns will be the key to another quick Shanghai Masters 2025 match.
Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Betting Tips and Odds
- De Minaur to Win (1.10): Dominant H2H and 75% win rate on hard make this a safe favorite; his speed suits Shanghai’s courts.
- Under 22.5 Games (1.70): Their last encounter was a 28 game match but de Minaur’s effectiveness implies shorter sets; 70% of his hard court wins were under this number.
- Alex Minaur in Straight Sets (1.40): Last time 3-0 for de Minaur; break and power game he uses very effectively against lower ranked players on hard.
- De Minaur -4.5 Games Handicap (1.80): In H2H his performances were always above expectations; his break of serve + return games give him multi-break margins against mid-tier players.
- De Minaur Over 10.5 Aces + Service Holds (1.60): He made 2.86 aces on average per match and he held his service 90%+ of the time; very likely on a quick hard court.
Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Match Prediction
At Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, I believe that Alex de Minaur will walk down Kamil Majchrzak in a three-set match. De Minaur is known for his incredible speed and his smashes, so the Pole will certainly find it hard to follow his usual baseline rhythm. De Minaur returning 40% of the points was aimed at Majchrzak’s serve, while his own game with low errors will prosper in Shanghai conditions, marking a nice contrast to Majchrzak’s first-time nerves. Their 2022 H2H match revealed de Minaur’s superiority, and the recent X predictions are largely in favor of him. De Minaur is expected to keep the rallies short and not allow Majchrzak many breaks, thus qualifying him for the next round of the draw in his brilliant Asian form.
Below are my top 3 bets for this match:
Our main prediction: De Minaur -4.5 Games Handicap @ 1.8 odds on 1xbet
Our betting tip for the match: Under 22.5 Games @ 1.7 odds on Betway
Our final betting tip for the match: De Minaur -4.5 Games Handicap @ 1.85 odds on Bet365
⚠️ Disclaimer: Official odds for the Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur match are not yet released. Any figures mentioned are illustrative estimates; check live bookmaker lines before betting.
