According to the outlook, there is a 75% chance La Niña transitions to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and March 2026, with neutral conditions likely to persist through at least late spring. While sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain below average, subsurface warming suggests the La Niña signal is beginning to fade. Even after neutral conditions develop, some lingering La Niña influence may continue into early spring.
WEATHER WARN DAY ISSUED FOR HEAVY RAIN, THREAT OF FLOODING THIS WEEKEND
RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING TEMPORARY DROUGHT RELIEF TO WNC, UPSTATE
Despite a warm start to January across parts of the U.S., the current pattern is still consistent with a La Niña. As we head into the second half of January, colder air is expected to return more frequently to the eastern United States, including the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
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In a typical La Niña pattern, the eastern half of the country experiences more frequent cold shots and an increased chance for winter precipitation, while the western U.S. trends warmer and drier under stronger high pressure.
