Steelers Analysis
The NFL season is finally upon us, and now that we’ve all survived yet another painfully long offseason, it’s time to make some predictions. Forecasting how the year will go is certainly a difficult exercise, but that’s part of the gig, right? Right or wrong, this is a piece that I enjoy putting together each year. For full transparency, my projection was one game off last season, continuing a four-year trend of at least being in close proximity.
Consider these my final thoughts on what could go right, some areas of concern, what qualifies as a successful season, and of course, their final record.
Defensive Overview
Plain and simple: this is a unit that is flushed with talent at all three levels. The edge trio of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig are really unlike anything else in the league. They boast a deep linebacking core that should only improve with another year of chemistry, combined with the luxury of playing behind a more stout defensive line thanks to a couple of rookie investments in the trenches. This is also their deepest cornerback room in years, and I’m bullish on the idea of deploying Jalen Ramsey as a true queen on the chessboard with responsibilities that change based on need. Expectations are high, and they should be, based on this being the most expensive defense once again this fall.
On the flip side, age is a legitimate concern, with most of their household names now in their 30s. Cam Heyward, now 36 years old, has been an ageless wonder of sorts, but it feels unrealistic to expect him to play at a Defensive Player of the Year level again in 2025. The secondary has a ton of experience working in their favor, but the lack of team speed in the back end is worth keeping an eye on. Lastly, the lack of creativity from a schematic standpoint is my biggest hangup and something that could prevent them from reaching their potential again. In years past, this has been a static defense that doesn’t offer much in the form of disguise and also doesn’t create enough chaos with their rather unimaginative pressure paths.
Ultimately, I think this will be a very good defense that finishes in the top-five range, keeping them in games on a consistent basis. The talent is there for them to be more than that if Father Time doesn’t strike, but I’m hesitant to say that they’ll be a dominant group because they still feel overly talent dependent. Even if the coaching staff fails to develop a curveball, the floor is pretty high for this bunch.
Offensive Overview
The selling point offensively is that this is an ascending offensive line and intriguing collection of talent. Zach Frazier looks like a home run selection after playing like an All-Pro last season, and I truly believe that Troy Fautanu can be a special tackle in due time. DK Metcalf has been one of the league’s premium explosive play generators since entering the league, and based on what they gave up to acquire him, the Steelers must think there’s even more to tap into. Drafting Kaleb Johnson in the third round was an inspired decision, with him being a great fit in their outside zone-based rushing attack. Even if there’s some redundancy with Pat Freiermuth and the newly acquired Jonnu Smith, this is a strong tight end room. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over, and although noticeably declining, has enough juice in his arm with weaknesses that are easier to work around than his predecessors.
But there are just so many unanswered questions on this side of the ball. First, what can they really lean on as an identity early on? They were bottom five in rushing success rate last year with one of the smallest menus of run concepts imaginable, ignoring the league-wide trends shifting into more of a balanced approach to incorporate gap-scheme plays. The current construction of the receiver room seems bizarre after last year’s struggles. Not to mention, this ship is being steered by an immobile signal caller that is now three years removed from good quarterback play. Broderick Jones, now the blindside protector, is the ultimate wild card in this equation after struggling mightily in his first two campaigns as a pro.
There will undoubtedly be some fun moments here; however, recent history tells us that you can’t be a contender in the modern era without a top ten offense. In the grand view of things, this feels like a below-average offense that finishes as something like the 22nd best unit in the metrics that matter most. The range of potential outcomes feels pretty slim in this instance.
Defining Success
The goal of all 32 teams is to host the parade in February, but the reality is that there are only a handful of teams that qualify as true contenders. Even without hoisting the Lombardi trophy, this can be a successful season for the Steelers. For years now, the outside perception has been that this is a franchise that is a quarterback away from rejoining the elites.
This notion ignores the concerns, most of which are listed above, that are further illuminated by not having a needle-mover at the game’s most important position. With excess draft capital stored away in the cache, Pittsburgh is primed for an aggressive move to secure a franchise quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft. If the offensive line, particularly the tackle situation, ends the season on a promising note, that’s a win because it means that everyone involved can feel more at ease with dropping a youngster into this ecosystem come 2026.
Also, general manager Omar Khan has done a nice job replenishing the cupboard on the defensive side of the ball by identifying talent that can contribute right away. It would go a long way if just one of these guys on a rookie contract could go from being a quality starter to a legitimate difference maker. With some of their foundational pillars nearing the tail end of their athletic primes, they need someone to emerge as a worthy successor and, most importantly, leader on this side of the football. With so few star-caliber players hitting the open market these days, the draft and develop strategy has never been more important. Luckily for them, there are several second and third-year players that I believe are capable of another jump.
Prediction
Residing in the current AFC landscape can be a blessing and a curse. The good news is that the conference is insanely top-heavy, with three title contenders in the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills that are just head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the competition. After that, the rest of the wildcard hopefuls have various debilitating weaknesses that could sink their season. Unlike the NFC, there just aren’t as many complete teams, which opens the door for the Steelers to secure a Wild Card spot. I’ve long considered Mike Tomlin to be one of the best floor-raisers in the business, and he’s snuck teams into the dance that are definitely less talented than this iteration of the roster.
So, I’ve got Pittsburgh finishing with nine wins and securing the seventh seed in the AFC at the buzzer, giving fans a heart attack along the way as only they know how. The obvious downside to this scenario is that another road game with a heavyweight contender awaits them in the playoffs. Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, but let’s be serious — we’ve seen this movie before. Can the defense rise up to the challenge when it really matters? If so, do they even have enough firepower to keep pace with the juggernaut offenses? Alas, I’m fairly skeptical of those things both changing this season.
