With four games remaining, Iowa State is in a volatile spot. They are currently projected as an 8-9 seed in the NCAA tournament, but the next four games are all being classified either Q1 or Q2. All four games include very realistic scenarios for both victory and defeat.
Using some rough calculations, here are the odds of the win total down the stretch, using the current ESPN projections:
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0 wins: 1%
1 win: 14%
2 wins: 42%
3 wins: 36%
4 wins: 7%
With this amount of variance, it should be all gas and no breaks, and everyone will need to do their part. Including…
Addy Brown
At 6:04 p.m. Tuesday, Addy Brown posted a tongue in cheek tweet, announcing “Think it’s about time to retire the notebook… See you tomorrow cyclone nation”, along with a photo of her notebook she has become a regular sight during most of conference play as she has been out with an injury for 11 games.
Iowa State dropped their first four games without the star forward, but has turned it around lately with wins in six out of their last seven. Coupled with an injury to Arrianna Jackson that kept her out for three games, and many players on the roster had to take on new roles which explains their poor play to start that stretch. Now with a roster that seems to be at 100%, Iowa State is now in a prime position to finish the rest of conference play on a high note and reestablish themselves as a top team in the conference.
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Before her injury, Addy Brown had averaged 13.1/9/5.8 in 15 games. Those marks are still third, first, and second respectively. While Audi Crooks will always have the primary spotlight, anyone who regularly watches Iowa State women’s basketball knows how vital Addy Brown is to the offense. She amassed six double doubles in her 15 games, including a 20/12/5 performance against Iowa, the most high profile game of the season. She also brings a 42% clip from deep, so in an offense that is characterized by its high low action, another threat from deep goes a long way.
My personal opinion? This team is better than the one when Addy Brown first got injured. Yes they have taken some losses, but so many players have learned how to play with an increased responsibility, and it forced the team to take a hard look at everyone’s strengths and weaknesses. Those first couple games definitely had some steep learning curves, but overall I believe that the team has figured out a more dynamic look than previously, so add in a strong presence on both sides of the ball, and I believe that whoever gets paired with them in the tournament should be pissed.
ASU continues to float on the bubble
According to ESPN, Arizona State is currently among the last four in for the NCAA tournament, but they likely need a win either at Iowa State or at Texas Tech to solidify their ticket. While they should get credit for going undefeated in their non-conference season, a road win against Gonzaga being their best would likely put them behind their bubble partners as many of those teams have pulled off at least one significant upset. They have had a good conference season, currently 8-6 in conference play, good for seventh in the conference and tied with Iowa State.
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The Sun Devils are led by Gabby Elliot and McKinna Brackens, scoring 17.3 and 15 points per game respectively. While the team ranks thirteenth in the conference in scoring during conference play, their sixth ranked defense is what has kept them in contention for a tournament spot as they have allowed just 63.9 points per game. That defense ranks third in conference play in turnovers forced per game, while ranking seventh in steals.
Regardless of the final result of the season, Arizona State fans have to be pleased with the turnaround the program has made under first year head coach Molly Miller. After coaching for five seasons at Grand Canyon, she took over a squad that went 10-22 overall and an abysmal 3-15 in conference play. Home attendance has increased by 16% in just one year, so keep a lookout for this program in future years to continue their rise.
So in a matchup that has much higher stakes than previously anticipated, what is the path to victory for Iowa State?
The lessons learned without Addy Brown are still valuable. While the team was still very good with Addy Brown in the lineup, I would argue that the previous high-low offense was too linear and they were bound to find themselves in trouble. While the first couple games without Addy Brown included some steep learning curves, the offense has more off ball movement, and I feel like they have developed a system that produces more open three attempts. Put Addy Brown into that system, and I believe they can achieve new heights.
Keep control of the ball. Arizona State is third in the conference in turnovers forced, and Iowa State can still fall victim to losing the ball as they had 12 turnovers in the first half against Kansas State. We also learned that they can adapt and choose the spots more carefully, as they only allowed four turnovers in the final 20 minutes which ultimately kept them ahead as their first half hot hands cooled off.
Hit the paint hard. Arizona State ranks second in conference play for opponent three point percentage, but they will lack the size needed to keep Audi Crooks at bay without help. With Addy Brown also being dominant in the paint and Jada William’s ability to drive to the hoop, Iowa State has the ability to establish a full blitz close to the hoop.
Tonight’s game will be broadcast on ESPN+ with a 6:30 p.m. tipoff. ESPN analytics currently favors Iowa State with an 86.4% chance to win.
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Prediction: Iowa State 77 – Arizona State 68
