West Indies posted two respectable totals in their pair of T20Is against Australia in Jamaica but were unable to thwart Australia’s big hitters in response. Perhaps the coin will land their way at Warner Park in Basseterre, St Kitts, and they can show what they can do when chasing down a target!
Match News and Current Form
It’s fair to say that the West Indies would have won one if not two of these matches so far with some more polished performances. There were no fewer than four dropped catches in the second game on Tuesday night (in addition to some further misfields) including three alone in the seventh over off the bowling of spinner Gudakesh Motie. Considering the Aussie unbeaten pair of Cameron Green and Josh Inglis would go on to score 120 runs from the next nine overs, that was the over in which the Windies lost the game.
They haven’t disgraced themselves with the bat, though their historically high dot ball percentage remains poor in this series. Warner Park can produce both extremes when it comes to the ease or difficulty of boundary hitting – it has seen five CPL scores of 240+ and seven of under 155 successfully defended – so this game could go one way or another for the high-risk Windies. One thing is for sure: with just two wins in their last 16 matches, the current approach has not been paying off.
Australia, on the other hand, are humming along nicely. Their 19 wins from their 23 T20Is since the start of 2024 gives them the second-best win percentage (82.6%) of all full member teams in that period, only behind India’s 83.9% (W26, L5), and as a result they have taken second place in the ICC T20I rankings behind the current world champions.
That success comes despite using 28 different players across that 23-game period, and some of the most recent additions to that 28-man pool have been the most impressive in that particular series such as Mitch Owen (50 on debut) and Ben Dwarshuis (4-36 and 1-37). There were signs in game two that they’ve got their mind firmly on the next World Cup now, namely that they fielded two specialist spinners (Matthew Kuhnemann and Adam Zampa) in the previous game and experimented with Glenn Maxwell as an opener for the first time in three years. Expect more of the same to continue.
Head-to-Head History
Australia extended their already dominant recent history over the West Indies with their two wins in Jamaica. As a result, Australia were triumphant in seven of the last eight H2Hs to take place since the 2021 T20 World Cup.
Hot Stats and Streaks
• Eight of the ten completed T20Is at Warner Park were won batting first
• The all-time T20I run rate at Warner Park is only 7.35rpo (147 runs per 20 overs)
• Romario Shepherd averages just 14 runs and 11 balls per CPL wicket at Warner Park (23 from 13 matches)
• Shimron Hetmyer averages just 12 in Warner Park T20Is (five innings, 48 runs)
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Australia captain Mitchell Marsh has been largely neutralised in this series by some lateral movement from West Indian opening bowler Alzarri Joseph, who now boasts outstanding personal figures of 4-22 from just 2.3 overs bowled to Marsh in this format.
Andre Russell retired from internationals after playing two games in his home country. Romario Shepherd was nominated as a batting all-rounder concussion substitute in the second T20I and therefore appears to be the leading successor to take Russell’s place for the remainder of the series, particularly given his CPL success in St Kitts.
Betting Analysis
Warner Park produced plenty of 200+ run scores in the 2024 CPL, so if that continues, you can back your favourite batters with confidence. Over 351.5 match runs on Bet365 looks appealing on what could be the best batting pitch of the series.
