The wind is the part of this storm that deserves the most attention. As low pressure strengthens offshore Saturday, the pressure gradient tightens and northerly winds will crank up across Connecticut.
For most inland towns, gusts should reach 30 to 35 mph. Along the shoreline and especially in eastern Connecticut, gusts could climb closer to 35 to 40 mph at times. That is generally below wind advisory criteria on land, but this is late May, and fully leafed-out trees catch wind more efficiently than bare winter branches. A few downed limbs or isolated power issues would not be shocking, especially where the ground gets damp and gusts overperform.
Nearby, the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for parts of eastern Massachusetts, where confidence is higher in stronger gusts. A Gale Warning is also in effect for the waters of eastern Long Island Sound, where conditions will become hazardous for mariners Saturday.
This setup is not your typical end-of-May shower system. A closed upper-level low, essentially a pocket of cold air and energy aloft, will drop across New England and help spin up the surface storm offshore.
That cold pool aloft is what makes this system unusual.
Highs Saturday may struggle through the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of Connecticut, and when you add clouds, showers and a stiff north wind, it will feel much colder. In eastern Connecticut, some towns may not get out of the 50s.
If this same air mass had happened a month earlier, it could have brought a few inches of wet snow to parts of Connecticut. This time around, there could be some wintry mix in the higher elevations of New Hampshire and Vermont, but southern New England will see only a chilly rainfall.
This is not a severe thunderstorm setup. It is a cold-core, blustery, unsettled system that will have more bark from wind and chill than from lightning or flooding.
Rain will be intermittent, but we could see a few brief downpours embedded within these showers.
Showers develop Friday night, with another round possible Saturday morning into early afternoon as the low pivots offshore. Rain totals should generally range from a few hundredths of an inch in northwest Connecticut to a few tenths of an inch for many towns. Eastern Connecticut has the best chance of seeing closer to a half-inch, with locally higher amounts if a steadier band rotates through.
Widespread flooding is not expected. The bigger issue is timing: wet roads, reduced visibility in heavier showers and gusty winds arriving as people head into Saturday plans.
By later Saturday, showers taper and skies gradually improve, leading to a quiet and bright day on Sunday with highs returning to the 70s.
